Department of the Treasury

Treasurer 2024 Winter Sitting Question Time Briefs (qtbs)

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This Question Time Brief prepared for the Treasurer in July 2024 presents labour market analysis showing resilience despite emerging softening. The unemployment rate stood at 4.0% in May 2024 (low by historical standards), with 877,800 jobs created since the Albanese Government took office. Wage growth reached 4.1% in the March quarter 2024, exceeding 4% for three consecutive quarters for the first time in 15 years, with annual real wage growth at 0.5%—the strongest since September 2020. However, Treasury forecasts indicate the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by June quarter 2025 as economic activity slows. Job advertisements and vacancies are easing from 2022 peaks, and wage growth is forecast to moderate to 3.25% in 2024-25. Recent wage growth was attributed to the Fair Work Commission's 3

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