Modelling For 3 Day Guarantee Policy Changes

Written by Claude Haiku 4.5 from the extracted text on 27 Feb 2026. It can miss or misread redacted and scanned pages. Check the source before relying on it.

The Department of Education's modelling for the Three Day Guarantee early childhood education and care (ECEC) policy projects approximately 3,000 new families will enter ECEC in the first year of implementation. The analysis estimates a 2.5 million hour increase in ECEC usage in 2026-27, representing a 0.15 per cent rise in demand or roughly 1,600 additional children using three days of centre-based day care weekly. The department's behavioural modelling assumes families with children aged 0-5 will respond to the guarantee, but only if childcare costs represent their primary barrier to work. The analysis accounts for both existing childcare subsidy recipients increasing their hours and new families beginning to use ECEC services. Significant portions of the original documents were redacted under cabinet and deliberative process exemptions.