News Bargaining Incentive modelling

Written by Claude Haiku 5.5 from the extracted text on 16 Oct 2026. It can miss or misread redacted and scanned pages. Check the source before relying on it.

The release comprises four FOI-disclosed documents relating to the News Bargaining Incentive (NBI), including a preliminary estimates sheet, revenue data tables, a costing model, and a 2024 initial revenue estimates paper. Much of the content is redacted under sections 47C, 47E(d) and 38. The disclosed material shows Treasury used publicly reported figures for in-scope platforms (Alphabet $8.4 billion, Meta $4.7-$5.1 billion, ByteDance $174 million for 2022) because tax secrecy prevents ATO data sharing. Treasury estimated first-round deals under the News Media Bargaining Code at $200-$250 million a year, about 1.5 per cent of Australian revenue, and proposed setting the incentive rate at 1.5 per cent multiplied by a deduction rate. The documents note ByteDance revenue later rose to $679 million by 2024. Internal disagreement or rejected options are not evident in the released text.