FOI 26-3324 – Private Health Insurance Rebate Modelling

Written by Claude Haiku 5.5 from the extracted text on 16 Oct 2026. It can miss or misread redacted and scanned pages. Check the source before relying on it.

This FOI release concerns modelling of the Private Health Insurance (PHI) rebate change, including Budget Estimates briefs, a Finity comparison, forward estimates tables and Senate questions on notice. The modelling projects that the rebate cut would reduce PRI-funded private hospital separations for people aged 69 and over, with drops of roughly 0.0% to 16.1% by 2028-29 depending on scenario, and reduce private hospital charges by up to about 1.8% of revenue. Reported findings indicate the rebate change is likely to affect less than 1% of public hospital demand. Expenditure estimates show PHI rebate costs of about $7.9 billion in 2025-26, rising to $30.2 billion across 2026-27 to 2029-30 including the Budget save. Some tables are incomplete or contain inconsistent figures, and no specific drugs or clinical efficacy data are included.