Dolphin Sands forecasts related documents

Written by Claude Haiku 5.5 from the extracted text on 20 Oct 2026. It can miss or misread redacted and scanned pages. Check the source before relying on it.

The release, titled "Dolphin Sands forecasts related documents", contains a mix of material. The first pages include a largely garbled, unrelated table of entries (apparently a scanned or mis-OCR'd document with nonsensical text about mouse testing and contact names) that does not relate to Bureau of Meteorology operations. The substantive material is a series of daily "BoM Probabilistic Lightning Brief" emails and attachments issued by the Bureau's Tasmania Duty Officer in Hobart to Tasmanian fire agency personnel, dated 1 to 3 December 2025 (issued around 9 AM daily). The briefs describe an experimental trial providing three lightning forecast products: the high-resolution ACCESS City Ensemble (12 members, 2.2 km grid), the ECMWF Ensemble (51 members, 14-day outlook), and ACCESS Global Ensemble Calibrated Thunder (18 members). Forecasts show the probability of at least one lightning strike within 10 km of a point, with a caveat that Day 8 onwards is unreliable. The briefs are marked as experimental and not for operational decisions. Named locations are not specified in the visible text, and no failures or ministerial decisions are recorded.