FOI 26-2264 LD – NDIS Budget Modelling Documents

Written by Claude Haiku 4.5 from the extracted text on 27 Feb 2026. It can miss or misread redacted and scanned pages. Check the source before relying on it.

This FOI release contains internal NDIS budget modelling emails from September 2025 discussing scheme growth projections and participant impact analysis. The documents show Department of Health, Disability and Ageing staff preparing budget scenarios in response to a Minister's Office request regarding a 5-6 percent growth target for the NDIS. Communications between the NDIS Sustainability Policy & Analysis team detail efforts to translate June 2024 projections to June 2025 estimates and break down participant impacts by diversions and exits using data from existing slide presentations. The emails indicate this analysis was prepared for potential ministerial questioning and would be included in subsequent briefings to the Minister's Office and NPP (National Priorities). Substantial portions remain redacted under exemptions, limiting visibility into the specific modelling assumptions, projections, and participant impact figures themselves.