FOI 26-3203 – Cost modelling for the NDIS reform agenda by the scheme actuary

Written by Claude Haiku 5.5 from the extracted text on 23 Oct 2026. It can miss or misread redacted and scanned pages. Check the source before relying on it.

This FOI release from the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing contains NDIS cost modelling prepared to support the scheme reform agenda. It includes projected participant numbers from 2024-25 to 2030-31, showing the pre-reform total rising from 739,414 to 944,000, while the post-reform total falls to 598,000 once participants assumed to exit are removed. Budget impact tables compare 2026-27 Budget participant costs with the 2025-26 MYEFO estimates, showing an upward revision of about $24.6 billion over the forward period. A reform savings schedule lists ten measures, including reasonable and necessary guidance, Daily Activities Budgets, plan rollover changes, unregistered provider pricing and high-risk provider registration, with total fiscal impact of about $38.1 billion by 2029-30. The release also includes a ministerial letter responding to Senate orders.