Treasury Home Guarantee Scheme (hgs)

Written by Claude Haiku 4.5 from the extracted text on 28 Feb 2026. It can miss or misread redacted and scanned pages. Check the source before relying on it.

This email exchange (document type: internal policy analysis/modelling) concerns Treasury's assessment of the Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS) changes' impact on dwelling prices. Treasury estimated a +0.6% effect on national dwelling prices over the medium term, primarily driven by increased first-home buyer demand. The analysis projected 16,000 additional first-home buyer households in year one and 3,100 thereafter, calculated against a dwelling stock of 11.2 million. Treasury applied its own housing system model elasticity estimates (an updated version of Saunders and Tulip 2019) and incorporated the income effect from households' savings on lenders mortgage insurance. The analysis confirmed that supply response effects were already factored into the elasticity estimates, so no additional adjustment was required. The document provides the methodological reasoning behind Treasury's demand shock calculations and price impact modelling.