Default Market Offer 2025-26

Written by Claude Haiku 4.5 from the extracted text on 28 Feb 2026. It can miss or misread redacted and scanned pages. Check the source before relying on it.

Treasury's analysis of the 2025-26 Default Market Offer (DMO) forecasted a 6.8 per cent retail electricity price increase in DMO regions, with the DMO accounting for approximately 70 per cent of underlying CPI electricity forecasts. Internal emails and a ministerial submission to the Treasurer from May 2025 show Treasury economists tracking the Australian Energy Regulator's DMO announcement. Supporting analysis broken down CPI electricity drivers, showing wholesale costs growth of 4.4 per cent, network costs growth of 4.9 per cent, and total non-wholesale costs growth of 5.6 per cent for 2025-26, compared to actual wholesale costs decline of 13.2 per cent in 2024-25. The documents indicate Treasury was preparing briefing materials on the DMO's inflation implications ahead of the AER's public release on 26 May 2025,